Law
Statistical consulting for law firms.
Salt Hill has assisted law firms in matters relating to healthcare, finance, insurance, product liability, audits, fraud and theft, labor and employment, public policy, government regulation, and education. We estimate key amounts at issue, review and critique reports, compose expert reports, and provide expert testimony in court settings. Dr. Salzberg has appeared in state and federal court as an expert witness in statistics.
In our litigation work, we always assume you want to know the right answer, whether or not it favors your position. We will work with your data to uncover both promising analyses and potential problems, because we believe that you need to have the unbiased facts to make the best decisions in litigation matters.
Examples of Our Work
Modeling Loan Values for Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities
Served as a statistical consultant in the development of dynamic models for residential property valuation across the United States in order to determine whether certain residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) were fairly valued. Made use of statistical and econometric techniques including regression modeling, statistical sampling, bootstrapping, and bias adjustment.Understanding causes of construction delays
Reviewed details of a statistical analysis and a dynamic simulation model, created in order to estimate excess hours spent in construction and design in a delayed power plant project. Work is part of an international arbitration involving the power plant and the construction companies contracted to perform the work. Dr. Salzberg wrote an expert report and testified at an international arbitration on behalf of the owners of the plant.
Determining excess profit
Reviewed and critiqued a regression model to determine excess profit, which was to be used in a sentencing hearing. Work was performed on behalf of the defendants. Dr. Salzberg wrote an expert report setting forth findings using figures rather than formulas to explain statistical concepts.Product liability data modeling
Reviewed data and “survival analysis” models regarding the number of warranty complaints received for defective windows. Created revised models showing the effects of certain assumptions. Pulled statistical sample to estimate rate of certain types of defects. Dr. Salzberg wrote and expert report and testified in a deposition (on behalf of defendants). The matter is ongoing.Gender discrimination
Reviewed data and analysis regarding discrimination claims at the Borgata Hotel in Atlantic City. Wrote an expert report and testified in a deposition on behalf of the plaintiffs.Housing discrimination
We have been involved in a number of matters regarding housing discrimination, both on behalf of the plaintiff and on behalf of the defendant. In each case, examined Census data on racial and ethnic makeup of the locality as well as specifics of the proposed housing project in order to determine whether the proposed project would be favorable or disfavorable to minorities.Ford Windstar back axle defect
In conjunction with our teaming partner, we assisted in analyzing data and performing statistical analyses to determine the possible economic effects of a defect in some models the Ford Windstar’s back axle.Patent data analysis
Reviewed data related to a patent in order to determine statistical validity of certain claims of the patent. Dr. Salzberg wrote expert reports and testified in a deposition in one of these matters.Discrimination in highway stops
Assisted in analysis of highway stops of charter buses in a discrimination claim against the state of New Jersey. Our work was on behalf of the state, and helped determine the rate of highway stops for different bus companies, in order to determine if there was a correlation to the race of the companies’ owners.Analysis of program administration data
On behalf of the Texas Attorney General’s office, reviewed data regarding the state's foster care programs. Wrote an expert report and testified in a deposition related to a matter that claimed insufficient resources were allocated for caseworkers and other activities.Statistical analysis of unauthorized sales of consumer products
In a matter regarding selling of hair products to unauthorized distributors, analyzed data on thousands of buybacks. On behalf of L’Oreal, performed statistical analysis and determined whether one company was responsible for a disproportionate amount of unauthorized sales. Dr. Salzberg wrote an expert report and testified in a deposition in the matter, which eventually settled.Analyzing search techniques
Reviewed search techniques, keys, and results for hundreds of thousands of technical searches performed over several years, in order to determine whether the searches were unique, or customized, or whether a number of them were equivalent. Dr. Salzberg wrote and expert report and testified in court on behalf of the company in a sales tax dispute with the state of New York.Finding "change-points" in stock prices
In a number of matters regarding insider or undisclosed information, used statistical regression modeling to determine the price effects of not disclosing information on the stock price of a company. This form of analysis is frequently termed “event history analysis.”
Pricing analysis in dumping case
On behalf of the United States and working with a teaming partner, analyzed pricing of catfish in order to determine whether it was consisted with market prices or with dumping. Performed statistical analysis using Stata software.Getting the most out of limited data
Modeled missing data in cable operator surveys in order to determine appropriate share for the Public Broadcasting System. By law, royalties from the retransmission of distant television signals is regulated by a panel of arbitrators at the Library of Congress called the Cable Royalty Tribunal. These royalties are drawn from a pool of funds contributed by local television stations who receive distant signals. Our statistical models made a more objective determination of shares than had otherwise been provided through the expert testimony of economists and survey professionals, and were ultimately accepted by the Cable Royalty Tribunal.Modeling chances of rare events
Consulted in a litigation matter involving a global engineering and construction company and one of the world's largest energy companies, developed statistical models to estimate the probability of bolts failing along an undersea pipeline, causing a catastrophic leak of oil or gas.Sampling medical insurance claims files for audit challenges
In a number of matters, a federal agency sought reimbursement for Medicare or Medicaid claims, based on a statistical sample. Retained in some cases by the private client and in others by the government, we pulled statistical samples and/or evaluated the extrapolation results, in order to determine whether the original analysis was appropriate and correct.Corporations
Statistical consulting for corporations
Salt Hill assists corporate clients with marketing analytics, forecasting sales and costs, data and technology audits, compliance matters, and litigation support.
We create statistical models to solve a broad range of problems, from helping a company predict the probability and severity of workplace accidents to analyzing loan data to predict default rates and loan performance. Our data analysis has helped our clients become more profitable by both increasing revenue and reducing costs.
Using statistical sampling and modeling techniques, we can sort through and make sense of massive quantities of data. We use quantitative methods to adjust for bias and to make valid estimates even when information is limited or key data is missing.
Example of our work
Accident prevention through statistical modeling
On behalf of a Fortune 100 company, we created statistical models to determine the probabilities and likely severities of accidents for different employee and accident types. Used statistical software, including the Stata program and the R Language. By focusing on the areas and types of accidents, we estimated that the company could save approximately $3 million annually in costs.Data analytics in the pharmaceutical industry
Statistical analysis and modeling on behalf of Pfizer in three separate projects over the course of several years. Validated revenue forecasting models, and wrote and implemented code in the R language to improve the forecasting process and underlying diagnostics. In another project, reviewed Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) requirements to determine if certain data sets had been properly “de-identified.” In a third project, assisted in validation of a data supplier by performing statistical analyses of possible biases in data regarding prescriptions and market share of pharmaceutical products.
Loan data analysis
In a number of projects on behalf of universities, analyzed student loan data to determine cohort default rates and other key indicators of loan performance. Some of the work was to assist in reporting to the Department of Education, while other aspects of the work was for internal control.Insurance auction pricing analytics
In separate projects on behalf of two leaders in the online business to business auction market for insurance leads, developed statistical models and analyzed data in order to optimize bidding and pricing of leads in the primary and secondary market.Insurance rate analysis
On behalf of Fortune 100 insurance company, designed a statistical sample to compare rates among possible providers in different localities. Performed analysis at the patient level and at the procedure code level to help determine which provider was the most cost-effective.Asbestos litigation analysis
On behalf of Fortune 100 company, reviewed analysis of settlement data for thousands of asbestos cases, in order to determine whether certain claims regarding company actions were valid. Performed statistical analyses to determine whether differences existed in different types of settlements. Dr. Salzberg wrote expert reports setting forth his findings.Statistical record matching using probability models
Created probability models and performed statistical analysis in order to determine whether individuals listed in a social security database (containing millions of records) matched individuals holding insurance policies that may have required payments. Helped design software that was successful in recovering insurance dollars on behalf of the states.Statistical analysis of unauthorized sales of consumer products
In a matter regarding selling of hair products to unauthorized distributors, analyzed data on thousands of buybacks. On behalf of L’Oreal, performed statistical analysis and determined whether one company was responsible for a disproportionate amount of unauthorized sales. Dr. Salzberg wrote an expert report and testified in a deposition in the matter, which eventually settled.Pharmaceutical prescription forecasting
On behalf of a major data provider in the pharmaceutical industry, reviewed data and developed pilot forecasting methods, which took into account the possibility that a major drug store chain might stop providing information. Worked with dataset containing millions of lines of data regarding prescriptions of individual doctors on a weekly basis across the United States.
Document categorization and text mining
On behalf of Xerox, analyzed text mining software and suggested algorithms to improve categorization of documents. We analyzed a model the scored documents according to whether they were relevant for a particular search. Using the scores from a proprietary process created by Xerox, we created an iterative process that re-scored documents based on a re-weighting that considered the initial score and whether a sample set of documents was, in fact, relevant.Advertising strategy modeling
We developed a model to determine the profitability of television advertising by station, time of day, and day of week for an online seller of software. This model was successfully used to determine how to allocate television advertising dollars. For another client, in a different project, we analyzed and suggested improvements to a similar model for mail advertising. These improvements allowed for reduction in spending and increases in revenues.Modeling chances of rare events
Consulted in a litigation matter involving a global engineering and construction company and one of the world's largest energy companies, developed statistical models to estimate the probability of bolts failing along an undersea pipeline, causing a catastrophic leak of oil or gas.Government
Statistical consulting for government
Salt Hill helps local, state, and federal government entities make informed decisions by providing statistical sampling, expert assistance in litigation matters, critical analysis and review of programs, and statistical audits. Our clients have included the U.S. Department of Justice, the U.S. Geological Survey, The United States Department of Labor, the U.S. Postal Service, state attorneys general, public service commissions, and the New York City Law Department.
Example of Our Work
Performance metrics in telecom
Created statistical sampling and data analysis plans to test and verify performance and incentive plans of telecommunications providers in a series of matters before state public service commissions in New York, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Virginia, and Colorado. Dr. Salzberg was a co-inventor (Patent #6,636,585) for the process of testing such plans. Executing the plans required processing and testing millions of yearly transactions. Dr. Alan Salzberg testified before a number of state public service commissions with the results of the statistical analyses and testing.Environmental education survey study (pro bono)
On behalf of the Arava Institute of Environmental Studies, advised on the design and sampling methodology for a broad-based survey of environmental education in middle and high schools. More than 7,000 students were surveyed in a sample that was stratified by size of town, income level, and other socio-economic variables. Performed weighted statistical analysis to project survey results to the population. Conclusions were presented before an Israeli Congressional Committee in a special session on the environment, and the research resulted in publications in both English and Hebrew (Dr. Salzberg is a co-author).
Discrimination charges at local police department
Reviewed data and test results to determine the validity of claims of discrimination in promotion for local police department. Performed statistical analysis to determine if differences in promotion rates were statistically significant.Commercial real estate valuation using massive dataset
In a series of matters on behalf of the New York City Law Department, created and analyzed a massive real estate database, modeled market and sales values, and wrote expert reports to determine potential biases of alternative methods of valuing commercial real estate. Determined the validity of assumptions about lease lengths, turnover rates, and other issues affecting rents and property values.Sampling for financial management for the U.S. Geological Survey
Design and revision of statistical sampling plans, implementing the samples on a monthly or quarterly basis, and extrapolating the results for use in determining proper accounting accruals quarterly and annually. The sampling plans and analyses were successfully defended before USGS outside auditor.Sampling medical insurance claims files for audit challenges
In a number of matters, a federal agency sought reimbursement for Medicare or Medicaid claims, based on a statistical sample. Retained in some cases by the private client and in others by the government, we pulled statistical samples and/or evaluated the extrapolation results, in order to determine whether the original analysis was appropriate and correct.Sampling and analytics for the Department of Labor
In ongoing work with our teaming partner, designed studies on behalf of the Department of Labor. In addition to statistical sampling, design, and analysis, we also created survival and regression models that can be used for forecasting and for improved allocation of time for investigative resources.