What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

Omicron Update

December 3, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Mostly bad news.

Omicron -- How bad will it be?

November 29, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

It's too early to know, but we'll review the data we have.

Why am I getting a booster?

November 15, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

It's all about lowering your already small chances.

Vaccination protectiveness against serious disease does not appear to wane

November 2, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Little or no waning of T-cells for Covid from Pfizer Vaccine

The new CDC data tells us that the vaxed are done with the pandemic, for now.

October 17, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Finally, the CDC has provided some national data on the effectiveness of vaccines.  

Why kid's COVID vaxes should not be an easy FDA approval

August 31, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

This post has nothing to do with the inter-workings of the FDA.

A Vaccination Simpson's Paradox

August 27, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

A mathematical paradox appears in the vaccination data.

Should the vaccinated change their behavior?

July 30, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

The CDC has changed their recommendations regarding masks for vaccinated.  Should you change your behavior?

Should You be Afraid of Delta?

July 27, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Delta is really only scary if you're not vaxed.  

The Life and Death of A Pandemic

June 10, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

US COVID Deaths have cratered.

Podcast Interview: How many vaxes until Herd Immunity?

April 27, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

And the answer is...

You're vaccinated. What is it safe to do now?

April 25, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Short answer: everything!

How many people will be killed by the J&J vax pause?

April 14, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Make no mistake: pausing the inoculations kills people.  How many?

The signs we are nearing the end (in a good way).

April 12, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Spring is in the air. 

NY's error in not vaccinating by age is killing people

April 4, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Several states have made vaccinating by age a priority.  Those that have not are seeing the effects.