What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

Podcast Interview: How many vaxes until Herd Immunity?

April 27, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

And the answer is...

You're vaccinated. What is it safe to do now?

April 25, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Short answer: everything!

How many people will be killed by the J&J vax pause?

April 14, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Make no mistake: pausing the inoculations kills people.  How many?

The signs we are nearing the end (in a good way).

April 12, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Spring is in the air. 

NY's error in not vaccinating by age is killing people

April 4, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Several states have made vaccinating by age a priority.  Those that have not are seeing the effects.

The Vaccines are good. But Pharma co's are being deceptive.

March 31, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

AZ and Pfizer are making the mistake of gilding the lily.

(Do not) Beware the Ides of March

March 15, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Still: all good news.

COVID status: all good news

February 14, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Everything about COVID is looking better.

Effectiveness of long-term Lockdowns, and other Myths

January 31, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

In the US, the state-by-state approach rarely mattered.

Four Graphs that Show the Pandemic has Peaked. Is it time for another lockdown?

January 24, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

The worst is behind us (barely).  Time for a lockdown?

Has NYC peaked (again)?

January 15, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Vacation is over.  It looks like COVID rates are now dropping.

Vaccination Priority Should be Strictly by Age

January 6, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

There are enormous differences in risk by age.

The three biggest priorties right now should be: Vaccinate, Vaccinate, Vaccinate

December 30, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Our vaccination plan is awful.

The Vaccines: What do the Numbers Tell Us?

December 15, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

This news is very good.

How bad will December be?

November 29, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

December will almost surely be the worst month yet.  How bad?