What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

Why kid's COVID vaxes should not be an easy FDA approval

August 31, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

This post has nothing to do with the inter-workings of the FDA.

A Vaccination Simpson's Paradox

August 27, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

A mathematical paradox appears in the vaccination data.

Should the vaccinated change their behavior?

July 30, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

The CDC has changed their recommendations regarding masks for vaccinated.  Should you change your behavior?

Should You be Afraid of Delta?

July 27, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Delta is really only scary if you're not vaxed.  

The Life and Death of A Pandemic

June 10, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

US COVID Deaths have cratered.

Podcast Interview: How many vaxes until Herd Immunity?

April 27, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

And the answer is...

You're vaccinated. What is it safe to do now?

April 25, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Short answer: everything!

How many people will be killed by the J&J vax pause?

April 14, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Make no mistake: pausing the inoculations kills people.  How many?

The signs we are nearing the end (in a good way).

April 12, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Spring is in the air. 

NY's error in not vaccinating by age is killing people

April 4, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Several states have made vaccinating by age a priority.  Those that have not are seeing the effects.

The Vaccines are good. But Pharma co's are being deceptive.

March 31, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

AZ and Pfizer are making the mistake of gilding the lily.

(Do not) Beware the Ides of March

March 15, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Still: all good news.

COVID status: all good news

February 14, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Everything about COVID is looking better.

Effectiveness of long-term Lockdowns, and other Myths

January 31, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

In the US, the state-by-state approach rarely mattered.

Four Graphs that Show the Pandemic has Peaked. Is it time for another lockdown?

January 24, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

The worst is behind us (barely).  Time for a lockdown?