What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

My last Covid post

January 16, 2024 By Alan Salzberg

Covid is (slowly) fading away.

Where there's smoke there's not always fire!

June 7, 2023 By Alan Salzberg

Air quality today in New York is horrid, but the fire is very far away.

The Latest Variant is Nothing to be Concerned About

January 9, 2023 By Alan Salzberg

I'm not sure anyone is worrying about Covid anymore, but...

NY Times Fudges the Numbers again

November 27, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

I hate it when an article is advocating something I agree with (better safety for cyclists and pedestrians) but then backs up its point with a terrible data analysis.

Boost or not: what does the data say?

September 4, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

The new Omicron Boosters are available.  Should you get one?  

Boosters for Children?

June 7, 2022 By Alan Salzberg and Abraham Wyner

There's no reason to require boosters for kids.  See our article in Tablet.

The FDA booster approval is junk science

May 20, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

Boosters in young children are unproven and should not have been authorized or recommended.

Fire the Covid Committee

May 15, 2022 By Abraham Wyner and Alan Salzberg

Some of this article, written a few weeks ago, is becoming relevant again due to restrictions in Camps and other summer programs.

The NY Times should not be the lap dog of big pharma

February 23, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

A statistical estimate usually has little meaning without some context.

An inconvenient truth: Masks barely work (at best).

January 30, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

There's now a good deal of data regarding public use of masks, and it indicates they are either useless or barely have an effect.

NYC has peaked

January 9, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

How are hospitals doing?

It's already too late in NYC

December 30, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Trouble has brewed.

The Sirens

December 27, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

New York City is starting to sound like March 2020.

Omicron Calculus Hits New York

December 21, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

The big mystery is how mild Omicron is.

Omicron Update

December 15, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

A lot can happen in a day.