What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

Boost or not: what does the data say?

September 4, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

The new Omicron Boosters are available.  Should you get one?  

Boosters for Children?

June 7, 2022 By Alan Salzberg and Abraham Wyner

There's no reason to require boosters for kids.  See our article in Tablet.

The FDA booster approval is junk science

May 20, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

Boosters in young children are unproven and should not have been authorized or recommended.

Fire the Covid Committee

May 15, 2022 By Abraham Wyner and Alan Salzberg

Some of this article, written a few weeks ago, is becoming relevant again due to restrictions in Camps and other summer programs.

The NY Times should not be the lap dog of big pharma

February 23, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

A statistical estimate usually has little meaning without some context.

An inconvenient truth: Masks barely work (at best).

January 30, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

There's now a good deal of data regarding public use of masks, and it indicates they are either useless or barely have an effect.

NYC has peaked

January 9, 2022 By Alan Salzberg

How are hospitals doing?

It's already too late in NYC

December 30, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Trouble has brewed.

The Sirens

December 27, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

New York City is starting to sound like March 2020.

Omicron Calculus Hits New York

December 21, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

The big mystery is how mild Omicron is.

Omicron Update

December 15, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

A lot can happen in a day.

A scary graph

December 14, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

We are at just about 800,00 deaths in the US.  What's next?

Omicron Update

December 3, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Mostly bad news.

Omicron -- How bad will it be?

November 29, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

It's too early to know, but we'll review the data we have.

Why am I getting a booster?

November 15, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

It's all about lowering your already small chances.