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What Are the Chances?
Musings on everyday probability
Random Post
Simpson's Paradox
April 29, 2013
By Alan J. Salzberg
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A North Slope real estate broker (named North) is trying to convince you that North Slope is a more affluent neighborhood than South Slope. To prove it, he explains that professionals in North Slope...
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The Worst Graph
November 12, 2012
By Alan J. Salzberg
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One reason for quotes like there are "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics" is because of graphs like these:
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Election Polls
September 21, 2012
By Alan J. Salzberg
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With the upcoming election, I have been following my favorite prediction site: electoral-vote.com. That site has a big map showing current predictions state-b...
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Born to Run?
November 11, 2011
By Alan J. Salzberg
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About a year ago, I read a book called "Born to Run," by Christopher McDougall, who last week wrote
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Detecting cheating
March 30, 2011
By Alan J. Salzberg
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In my professional work, I like being the statistical sleuth, trying to figure out whether a person or company cheated, and how much they cheated. Thus it was with a lot of interest that I read a rece...
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Throw away your cold medicine again?
September 28, 2010
By Alan J. Salzberg
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A couple years ago, I wrote about a study that looked at the effect of a seawater nasal spray on the health of children (see
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You asked for it, you got it. Toyota!
March 15, 2010
By Alan J. Salzberg
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I think that's how the ad line went. When? maybe 25 years ago. Well, it seems to apply now. Sudden acceleration. Mention a problem with a car, any problem with any car, and pe...
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More germs = less disease?
December 9, 2009
By Alan J. Salzberg
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So says an article in today's Science Daily, which reports on a recent study at Northwestern of children from the Philippine...
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Why Swine Flu is not a bunch of hogwash
October 29, 2009
By Alan J. Salzberg
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This updates my previous blog: "Why Swine flu is a bunch of hogwash?" Thing...
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Redskins are lucky to play bad teams, but how lucky?
October 15, 2009
By Alan J. Salzberg
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A recent article in Yahoo Sports pointed out that the Washington Red...
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Unemployment down but joblessness is up?
August 12, 2009
By Alan J. Salzberg
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There was a bit of interesting news that came out Friday--the nations unemployment rate actually declined, from 9.5% to 9.4%. This is true despite the fact that there was a net loss of jobs of 247,00...
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Riding a bike? Wear a helmet.
June 12, 2009
By Alan J. Salzberg
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Now that the sun has finally come out in NYC today after what seems like weeks of rain and cold weather, it seems an appropriate time to talk about one of my favorite summer recreational activities--r...
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Why Swine Flu is a bunch of hogwash.
May 18, 2009
By Alan J. Salzberg
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I first thought of writing about this a couple of weeks ago, when the nationwide hysteria concerning swine flu was just beginning, but then, as quickly as it came, it went. Now, with the first death...
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Facebook and grades
April 28, 2009
By Alan J. Salzberg
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I don't have a long post for today, but I want to briefly discuss the discussion of a study on Facebook and grades. It was the subject of the Wall Street Journal's Numbers Guy blog last week:
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How big a sample?
March 23, 2009
By Alan J. Salzberg
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Suppose we want to figure out what percentage of BIGbank's 1,000,000 loans are bad. We also want to look at smallbank, with 100,000 loans. Many people seem to think you'd need to look at...
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