What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

Will a "Second Wave" Close Schools before they open?

September 30, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

The news is rife with reports of upticks in NYC.  What's going on?

Sweden got schooling during COVID right

September 7, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Sweden goes from cautionary tale to exemplar.

Southern State Update

August 7, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Two weeks ago I predicted deaths were near the peak in AZ and slowing elsewhere.  How'd I do?

The next three weeks are going to be brutal in TX and FL

July 23, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

There has been a huge rise in cases in the South.  But it won't be as deadly as our spring outbreak.

Cuomo is not your COVID hero

July 16, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

We have a villain, so we need heroes.  Don't look to New York.

Is the United States Really that Much Worse than Europe?

July 12, 2020 By Jay Westreich

Europe had a one and done COVID wave.  How about the US?

What is herd Immunity for COVID?

July 5, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

If we get to herd immunity, we can stop worrying (mostly) about virus spread.  What is herd immunity and are we there yet?

The South is in Trouble

July 1, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

A promised, but not promising, update that looks at COVID in the South.  

Brooklyn data look good

June 17, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Since the George Floyd protests began, we have not had an uptick.

Is the pandemic over in NYC?

June 15, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

For now, the answer appears to be yes.

When do you need a mask?

May 28, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Wearing a mask or not wearing a mask has become political, with little attention paid to the science of whether and when it is necessary.  It's not clear-cut.

How we re-open New York City now (or very soon).

May 15, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

We've been shut down for 2 months.  We can re-open safely with this plan.

Do we really have 2 million cases in New York City?

April 28, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Based on the data, I think we could.

Young Adults Have Little Chance of Succumbing to COVID-19

April 23, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

There are dramatic differences in the chances of dying by age.

How many people in the US have (or had) COVID-19?

April 19, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

It's one of the most important questions, but unfortunately far from solved.