Musings on everyday probability
Based on the data, I think we could.
There are dramatic differences in the chances of dying by age.
It's one of the most important questions, but unfortunately far from solved.
The data is not great but it looks like NY State has peaked, and perhaps the U.S. has too, but what does that mean?
Josh looks at two cities, who closed up at different times, to see the effect.
The data gives us more good news.
There may be some good news today.
Josh will tell us about R0, the base reproduction number of a disease, and why we need to worry about it.
Washington State continues to flatten. Not so for other states.
We made it through the weekend. Is Lousiana still the worst? Maybe.
New York has by far the most deaths, followed by Washington State, but Washington won't be the second state to hit 1,000 deaths. Here's why.
You've probably heard a lot about New York being the center of the outbreak in the US. That's true, but due to their testing, NY looks much worse than other areas when it's only a little worse than some. What areas should we be worried about?
Right now, in the US, deaths from COVID-19 are still increasing at an exponential rate. This means they double every few days. A shutdown in other countries, like we have in NY, quickly curbed infections -- that is the only explanation for the end of exponential growth in China, and now in Italy.
Our NYC mayor is freaking out because of the dramatic increase in cases. He's wrong.
The current death rate in the U.S. for the coronavirus is more than 4%. But it's way too high, and that's bad news.