What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

Bridge splits re-visited

October 21, 2015 By Alan J. Salzberg
A couple years back, I wrote on the chances of various "splits" in bridge (and explained why this is something bridge players care about) in 

Going to College: what are the chances?

May 28, 2015 By Alan J. Salzberg
The NY Times answers it

To Huck or not to Huck?

February 16, 2015 By Alan J. Salzberg
I play a lot of Ultimate Frisbee, a game akin to football in that there are end zones, but akin to soccer in that there is constant action until someone scores.  In Ultimate, you can only advance by t...

Past posts can be found here...

February 16, 2015 By Alan J. Salzberg
For the last year or so, I used my other site for blogging.  You can find those posts at www.what-are-the-chances.blogspot.com .  

What is a p value and why do you care?

February 16, 2015 By Alan J. Salzberg
I feel like I've written this too many times, but here we go again. There was a splendid article in the 

Citibike Rides--what are the chances?

January 13, 2014 By Alan J. Salzberg
I have been working with Joe Jansen on the Citibike data in the R Language.  Citibike is New York's bike sharing program, which started in may and currently has...

What are the chances of different "splits" in bridge?

August 13, 2013 By Alan J. Salzberg
If you know how to play bridge, skip to the fourth paragraph! In bridge, 13 cards are dealt to each of 4 players (so all 52 cards are dealt).  Players sitting across from each other are...

Simpson's Paradox

April 29, 2013 By Alan J. Salzberg
A North Slope real estate broker (named North) is trying to convince you that North Slope is a more affluent neighborhood than South Slope.  To prove it, he explains that professionals in North Slope...

The Worst Graph

November 12, 2012 By Alan J. Salzberg
One reason for quotes like there are "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics" is because of graphs like these:  

Election Polls

September 21, 2012 By Alan J. Salzberg
With the upcoming election, I have been following my favorite prediction site: electoral-vote.com.  That site has a big map showing current predictions state-b...

Born to Run?

November 11, 2011 By Alan J. Salzberg
About a year ago, I read a book called "Born to Run," by Christopher McDougall, who last week wrote

Detecting cheating

March 30, 2011 By Alan J. Salzberg
In my professional work, I like being the statistical sleuth, trying to figure out whether a person or company cheated, and how much they cheated. Thus it was with a lot of interest that I read a rece...

Throw away your cold medicine again?

September 28, 2010 By Alan J. Salzberg
A couple years ago, I wrote about a study that looked at the effect of a seawater nasal spray on the health of children (see

You asked for it, you got it. Toyota!

March 15, 2010 By Alan J. Salzberg
I think that's how the ad line went. When? maybe 25 years ago.   Well, it seems to apply now. Sudden acceleration. Mention a problem with a car, any problem with any car, and pe...

More germs = less disease?

December 9, 2009 By Alan J. Salzberg
So says an article in today's Science Daily, which reports on a recent study at Northwestern of children from the Philippine...