Musings on everyday probability
December will almost surely be the worst month yet. How bad?
What can we expect the next few weeks?
Actually, not so bad.
The polls are sometimes close. But they don't get it right. Why not?
Confirmed cases are nearing a new high. Where are the worrisome spots?
We know the age distribution for COVID is severely tilted against older people. Here's a nice graph highlighting that.
We know the case totals by day do not tell the whole story, but how many people are really getting COVID in NY now?
The news is rife with reports of upticks in NYC. What's going on?
Sweden goes from cautionary tale to exemplar.
Two weeks ago I predicted deaths were near the peak in AZ and slowing elsewhere. How'd I do?
There has been a huge rise in cases in the South. But it won't be as deadly as our spring outbreak.
We have a villain, so we need heroes. Don't look to New York.
Europe had a one and done COVID wave. How about the US?
If we get to herd immunity, we can stop worrying (mostly) about virus spread. What is herd immunity and are we there yet?
A promised, but not promising, update that looks at COVID in the South.