What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

How bad will December be?

November 29, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

December will almost surely be the worst month yet.  How bad?

The Second Wave

November 16, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

What can we expect the next few weeks?

How bad were the polls?

November 13, 2020 By Ira Skop and Alan Salzberg

Actually, not so bad.

Why are polls always wrong?

November 2, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

The polls are sometimes close.  But they don't get it right.  Why not?

What's the winter going to be like?

October 22, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Confirmed cases are nearing a new high.  Where are the worrisome spots?

Sometimes one graph says a lot

October 16, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

We know the age distribution for COVID is severely tilted against older people.  Here's a nice graph highlighting that.

How many people are getting COVID in NY?

October 11, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

We know the case totals by day do not tell the whole story, but how many people are really getting COVID in NY now?

Will a "Second Wave" Close Schools before they open?

September 30, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

The news is rife with reports of upticks in NYC.  What's going on?

Sweden got schooling during COVID right

September 7, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Sweden goes from cautionary tale to exemplar.

Southern State Update

August 7, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Two weeks ago I predicted deaths were near the peak in AZ and slowing elsewhere.  How'd I do?

The next three weeks are going to be brutal in TX and FL

July 23, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

There has been a huge rise in cases in the South.  But it won't be as deadly as our spring outbreak.

Cuomo is not your COVID hero

July 16, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

We have a villain, so we need heroes.  Don't look to New York.

Is the United States Really that Much Worse than Europe?

July 12, 2020 By Jay Westreich

Europe had a one and done COVID wave.  How about the US?

What is herd Immunity for COVID?

July 5, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

If we get to herd immunity, we can stop worrying (mostly) about virus spread.  What is herd immunity and are we there yet?

The South is in Trouble

July 1, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

A promised, but not promising, update that looks at COVID in the South.