What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

Effectiveness of long-term Lockdowns, and other Myths

January 31, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

In the US, the state-by-state approach rarely mattered.

Four Graphs that Show the Pandemic has Peaked. Is it time for another lockdown?

January 24, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

The worst is behind us (barely).  Time for a lockdown?

Has NYC peaked (again)?

January 15, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

Vacation is over.  It looks like COVID rates are now dropping.

Vaccination Priority Should be Strictly by Age

January 6, 2021 By Alan Salzberg

There are enormous differences in risk by age.

The three biggest priorties right now should be: Vaccinate, Vaccinate, Vaccinate

December 30, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Our vaccination plan is awful.

The Vaccines: What do the Numbers Tell Us?

December 15, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

This news is very good.

How bad will December be?

November 29, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

December will almost surely be the worst month yet.  How bad?

The Second Wave

November 16, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

What can we expect the next few weeks?

How bad were the polls?

November 13, 2020 By Ira Skop and Alan Salzberg

Actually, not so bad.

Why are polls always wrong?

November 2, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

The polls are sometimes close.  But they don't get it right.  Why not?

What's the winter going to be like?

October 22, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Confirmed cases are nearing a new high.  Where are the worrisome spots?

Sometimes one graph says a lot

October 16, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

We know the age distribution for COVID is severely tilted against older people.  Here's a nice graph highlighting that.

How many people are getting COVID in NY?

October 11, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

We know the case totals by day do not tell the whole story, but how many people are really getting COVID in NY now?

Will a "Second Wave" Close Schools before they open?

September 30, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

The news is rife with reports of upticks in NYC.  What's going on?

Sweden got schooling during COVID right

September 7, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Sweden goes from cautionary tale to exemplar.