What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

What is herd Immunity for COVID?

July 5, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

If we get to herd immunity, we can stop worrying (mostly) about virus spread.  What is herd immunity and are we there yet?

The South is in Trouble

July 1, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

A promised, but not promising, update that looks at COVID in the South.  

Brooklyn data look good

June 17, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Since the George Floyd protests began, we have not had an uptick.

Is the pandemic over in NYC?

June 15, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

For now, the answer appears to be yes.

When do you need a mask?

May 28, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Wearing a mask or not wearing a mask has become political, with little attention paid to the science of whether and when it is necessary.  It's not clear-cut.

How we re-open New York City now (or very soon).

May 15, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

We've been shut down for 2 months.  We can re-open safely with this plan.

Do we really have 2 million cases in New York City?

April 28, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Based on the data, I think we could.

Young Adults Have Little Chance of Succumbing to COVID-19

April 23, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

There are dramatic differences in the chances of dying by age.

How many people in the US have (or had) COVID-19?

April 19, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

It's one of the most important questions, but unfortunately far from solved.

What does the peak mean?

April 12, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

The data is not great but it looks like NY State has peaked, and perhaps the U.S. has too, but what does that mean?

Austin Versus Nashville

April 8, 2020 By Josh Lafair

Josh looks at two cities, who closed up at different times, to see the effect.

New York City has Peaked

April 6, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

The data gives us more good news.

New York City: have we hit the peak?

April 3, 2020 By Olivia Hebner

There may be some good news today.

What is R0 and why do you care?

April 3, 2020 By Josh Lafair

Josh will tell us about R0, the base reproduction number of a disease, and why we need to worry about it.

Louisiana, Michigan, and New Jersey Surpass Washington

April 2, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Washington State continues to flatten.  Not so for other states.