Musings on everyday probability
In the US, the state-by-state approach rarely mattered.
The worst is behind us (barely). Time for a lockdown?
Vacation is over. It looks like COVID rates are now dropping.
There are enormous differences in risk by age.
Our vaccination plan is awful.
This news is very good.
December will almost surely be the worst month yet. How bad?
What can we expect the next few weeks?
Actually, not so bad.
The polls are sometimes close. But they don't get it right. Why not?
Confirmed cases are nearing a new high. Where are the worrisome spots?
We know the age distribution for COVID is severely tilted against older people. Here's a nice graph highlighting that.
We know the case totals by day do not tell the whole story, but how many people are really getting COVID in NY now?
The news is rife with reports of upticks in NYC. What's going on?
Sweden goes from cautionary tale to exemplar.