What Are the Chances?

Musings on everyday probability

Is the pandemic over in NYC?

June 15, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

For now, the answer appears to be yes.

When do you need a mask?

May 28, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Wearing a mask or not wearing a mask has become political, with little attention paid to the science of whether and when it is necessary.  It's not clear-cut.

How we re-open New York City now (or very soon).

May 15, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

We've been shut down for 2 months.  We can re-open safely with this plan.

Do we really have 2 million cases in New York City?

April 28, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Based on the data, I think we could.

Young Adults Have Little Chance of Succumbing to COVID-19

April 23, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

There are dramatic differences in the chances of dying by age.

How many people in the US have (or had) COVID-19?

April 19, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

It's one of the most important questions, but unfortunately far from solved.

What does the peak mean?

April 12, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

The data is not great but it looks like NY State has peaked, and perhaps the U.S. has too, but what does that mean?

Austin Versus Nashville

April 8, 2020 By Josh Lafair

Josh looks at two cities, who closed up at different times, to see the effect.

New York City has Peaked

April 6, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

The data gives us more good news.

New York City: have we hit the peak?

April 3, 2020 By Olivia Hebner

There may be some good news today.

What is R0 and why do you care?

April 3, 2020 By Josh Lafair

Josh will tell us about R0, the base reproduction number of a disease, and why we need to worry about it.

Louisiana, Michigan, and New Jersey Surpass Washington

April 2, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

Washington State continues to flatten.  Not so for other states.

State Virus Update

March 31, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

We made it through the weekend.  Is Lousiana still the worst?  Maybe.

Which state is the next New York, continued.

March 27, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

New York has by far the most deaths, followed by Washington State, but Washington won't be the second state to hit 1,000 deaths.  Here's why.

Which states are the next NY?

March 24, 2020 By Alan Salzberg

You've probably heard a lot about New York being the center of the outbreak in the US.  That's true, but due to their testing, NY looks much worse than other areas when it's only a little worse than some.  What areas should we be worried about?